BUFFALO — Wyomingites could be in for a price shock this winter, according to a prediction of upcoming winter heating bills released by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association that forecasts the costs of natural gas, electricity, propane and heating oil will rise significantly from last year.

“U.S. home heating costs are projected to rise by 8.7% this winter, more than twice the rate of inflation, driven primarily by higher electricity and heating oil costs,” NEADA said in a statement. The association said that U.S. households are projected to spend an average of $1,030 to heat their homes this winter.

Nearly 60% of Wyoming households rely on natural gas for home heating, according to the Energy Information Administration, making it the most common fuel source in the state. NEADA expects households using natural gas to see heating costs increase by 5.8%, with the average household spending $726 to heat its home this winter versus $686 last winter.

Homes that are heated by electricity will fare far worse, according to the association, with heating costs projected to increase 9%.

The association projects that homeowners who heat their homes using electricity will spend $1,249 to heat their homes this winter, up from $1,146 last winter. Propane users are expected to see heating costs increase by 8.7%.

In a press release, the association said that heating prices are rising due to myriad factors.

Electricity costs are under pressure from several directions. Utilities are paying more to finance power plants, transmission projects and other infrastructure. Natural gas — an important fuel for electricity generation — has become more expensive, while rapidly growing demand from data centers is adding pressure to the power system. Aging infrastructure and regional capacity constraints are also contributing to higher rates.

Natural gas prices are likewise rising due to a combination of surging global demand for liquefied natural gas, expanding domestic infrastructure costs and higher electricity generation demand.

Across all fuel types, the increase in heating costs is being moderated by expectations for a warmer winter due to El Nino, which typically brings warmer-than-normal winter temperatures to much of the United States, reducing the amount of energy households need to heat their homes.

Weather can affect household heating expenses in two ways. First, cold weather raises the amount of energy required to keep a house at a specific temperature. Second, because cold weather raises aggregate demand and can disrupt supply, it can cause energy prices to rise. These price increases can be more severe if fuel inventories are relatively low.

Weather conditions, geography and the type of energy used to heat the home all play a role in the actual cost to heat a home.

For that reason, the projected national average of $1,030 should be treated as a benchmark — not a prediction of any individual household’s bill.

Heating assistance

The higher heating prices arrive at a particularly difficult time when Americans are also paying more for groceries and at the fuel pump.

Approximately one in six U.S. households is behind on its utility bills, according to NEADA, and residential utility debt is approaching $23 billion. In 2024, utilities disconnected residential electric service approximately 13.4 million times and natural gas service about 1.7 million times because of unpaid bills.

Assistance is available to low-income households through the Wyoming Low Income Energy Assistance Program. The federally funded program helps eligible residents cover a portion of their monthly winter heating bills, receive help with heating emergencies, and improve their home’s energy efficiency.

Tina Packard, the state’s program manager, said that the program has received more applications for heating assistance this year than it had at the same time last year.

“We are prepared for that extra demand,” she said. “It’s a possibility that we’re going to see significantly more demand. I know that energy costs are higher. We’ve been able to see that on a state level and a national level, so that’s just something that we are paying really close attention to.”

Last winter LIEAP served 7,294 households in the state and provided $5.04 million in assistance. People over age 60 make up a disproportionate percentage of those who receive assistance. LIEAP provided assistance to 4,210 people over age 60 and 3,504 people who are disabled last year.

Packard said that in addition to helping with monthly heating bills, LIEAP can assist qualified participants with crisis funds.

“If someone is in a situation where they’re in danger of being disconnected, we can offer assistance with that,” she said. “We can offer assistance with the deposit if someone is needing to get utilities turned on. And then the big one that we have seen really a high need for if someone’s heating system breaks, and they qualify for LIEAP, we can help with that.”

Packard said that the income guidelines for qualifying for the heating assistance program are a little higher than some other assistance programs.

“I feel like there are more people that we could be reaching that would be eligible or potentially eligible than the people who are applying,” she said. “And we want to help as many people as we can because it’s a pretty great program.”

A homegrown supplement

With projections that heating costs will be higher this winter than last, Kelly Norris, chairman of the Clear Creek Wood Bank, said her organization anticipates a very busy winter.

“I’ve already started receiving phone calls wondering when the wood bank would be opening,” Norris said. “We are expecting more families than ever just because the prices of gas and groceries — things are costing more. And we’re expecting a much more winterlike winter. Last year we just didn’t have much winter.”

Johnson County’s wood bank, which is entering its fifth year, is a free service that provides firewood to families or individuals who are not able to procure their own firewood. The wood bank is open each Tuesday throughout the winter.

“We are just trying to keep our families warm through the winter,” she said. “Not everyone has the same ability to cut firewood or buy firewood.”

Norris said that wood bank clients include people who are no longer physically able to cut and stack firewood and may not even drive any longer and also families that are working so many jobs that they don’t have time to cut firewood.

The wood bank has a network of volunteers who cut and stack firewood. Volunteers even load wood into patrons’ vehicles, Norris said. However, the wood bank does not deliver firewood.

“We welcome folks to come pick up wood for others — neighbors, parents. Anyone that is maybe staying at home and not even driving anymore,” she said.

Last winter the wood bank gave out just under 140 cords — that is about nine truckloads of logs — and served just under 2,000 families.

“It was incredible,” Norris said. “We averaged a little over 40 families a week and they came from everywhere. We had families from Sheridan, Kaycee, Clearmont, Arvada, Ucross, Banner, Story.”

The organization estimates that the firewood it provided last winter had a value of $34,250.

Norris said that patrons receive about one-seventh of a cord of wood per week.

“If you were only using that wood to heat your home, it would heat your house for about three days,” she said. “It’s supplemental, but it’s going to help you substantially.”

The wood bank is open weekly on Tuesdays beginning Nov. 3.

“What I love about it is we have a really strong group of volunteers who show up for two hours to give away the firewood — and it’s physical work,” she said. “We see 20 to 30 families in the first hour. It’s a really great way to show up for each other every week.

“It makes all the difference in the world to these families. You’re taking a burden away,” Norris continued. “It’s so cool that we can use a resource off the mountain that may not be merchantable to a mill but can be used to take away an energy cost that a family can’t afford. This is us checking in on our neighbors, and there is no shame.”