The weather in the Shoshone Basin, which includes the Powell and Cody area, has been more than pleasant with winter just around the corner. The lack of snow a week from Christmas may seem like a gift to some, saving many the cost of a chiropractor. However, significant drought conditions are persistant across the state and there is a price to pay for our relative comfort.

The Natural Resources Conservation Service reporting the state’s SNOTELs are reading 65% of median with a basin low of 13% in southeastern Wyoming. SNOTEL, or Snow Telemetry, is a network of automated weather stations that monitor snow and other weather conditions in remote areas of the western United States.

Last year at this time the state was at 80% of median and was at 115% in 2022. Currently, the Shoshone Basin is the second driest region in the state at 48% of median.

Right behind the Shoshone Basin is the Yellowstone Basin at 56%. The conditions are currently changing oversnow activities in the park, according to Yellowstone spokesperson Linda Veress.

“We need a deeper base of snow for snowmobile travel from West Entrance, especially through the sections of road near thermal areas,” she said Tuesday in an email to the Tribune.

Snowmobile traffic is still moving through the South and East entrances, she said, but snowcoaches are the only way into the interior of the park from the West and North entrances.

In the most recent Vitals Report and Select Park Resources, the authors expressed concern increased temperatures will lead to increasingly severe drought and increased intensity and frequency of fires, increased white pine blister rust infection rates, lead to more exposure to insect and plant pathogens and could lead to more competition from other tree species for the environmentally critical whitebark pine.

“If climate trends continue along their current trajectory, fires within the park will continue to be larger, burn for longer durations, and may continue to be longer than average fire seasons,” park managers reported.

Drought in the Yellowstone Basin will affect all species, according to the report, from insects to large game species. Well-below-normal early season snowpack and short- and long-term precipitation deficits led to expansion of extreme drought in parts of the Wyoming, Wind River and Bighorn mountain ranges in Wyoming, according to a December report from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The reference period for computing medians is the 30-year period 1991 through 2020. Yet, reviewing reports from 50 to 60 years ago show a more dramatic decline in precipitation. Conditions are now becoming significantly drier at elevations below 6,500 feet. In fact, the rise in minimum temperatures in the last decade exceeds those of the 1930s Dust Bowl Era.

Considering the most recent trends in which warmer temperatures have been exacerbating drought conditions during the summers, a warmer, drier future for the GYE appears likely in the coming decades. By the latter part of the 21st century, the hot, dry conditions that led to the fires of 1988 will likely be the norm, representing a significant shift from past norms in the GYE toward the type of climate conditions seen in the southwestern United States, according to a National Park Service report, “Changes in Yellowstone Climate.”

The report claims climate change is expected to affect both snow accumulation and rate of spring melt. In some places, warmer temperatures will mean more moisture falling as rain during the cooler months and the snowpack melting earlier in the year. The reduction in snowpack is most pronounced in spring and summer, with an overall continued decline in snowfall projected for Yellowstone over the coming decades. The Yellowstone, Snake and Green rivers all have their headwaters in Yellowstone. As major tributaries for the Missouri, Columbia and Colorado rivers, they are important sources of water for drinking, agriculture, recreation and energy production throughout the region. A decrease in Yellowstone’s snow will affect millions of people beyond the boundaries of the GYE who depend on this critical source of water.

Current basin percentages of median include several with 30% to 50% decreases in weekly snow/water equivalents during the same period in 2022. Normal (median) is based on all reporting SNOTEL sites in the basin with calculated medians (newer SNOTEL sites do not have medians figured), but does not include manually measured snow courses. The statewide SNOTEL percent of median is calculated by averaging medians for all stations associated with Wyoming basins.

The 10-day forecast for Powell calls for a warming trend into the mid- and high-40s and no threat of precipitation through Christmas, according to a Wednesday report by the National Weather Service.