According to a long-term forecast, there’s a 70% chance a super El Nino weather pattern will hit the U.S. in the coming months. And if it arrives as meteorologists predict, it won’t be a pleasant pattern for northwest Wyoming habitats.

As the region is already reeling from the effects of this past winter’s warmth and relative low snow/water equivalence, a super El Niño will only further complicate the drought conditions locally, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys told the Tribune.

“Going into the fall, into the winter, and spring, it’s going to be on the warmer side of things. That’s what a typical El Nino does,” Roys said.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an El Nino is officially declared when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise by 0.9 degrees F above average. These occur every few years and alter global weather moderately, bringing wetter winters to the U.S. south and drier, warmer conditions to the north. However, a super event happens when Pacific Ocean temperatures in the same areas increase by more than 3.6 degrees F above average and heavily increase the risks of severe global droughts, massive marine heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and record global surface temperatures, depending on where you live.

Yes, it has rained on occasion (typically the day after the Tribune runs a story about drought), but it’s important to understand how warmer than average temperatures and drought ravages a region, Roys said. Sadly, our sporadic precipitation has little effect on our current drought conditions.

“If we do reach super El Nino status later this year, the effects, in terms of Wyoming and more of the United States as well, wouldn’t really be felt until later in the fall and in winter. That’s when we see the impacts the most,” he said. “What it really means for Wyoming, especially [in northwest Wyoming], is that it’s going to be on the warmer side, in general, going into the fall, into the winter and into spring.”

Wildlife and their habitats undergo dramatic changes during a super El Nino. Worsening drought and longer and larger fire seasons seem to be our future. A typical El Nino event lasts nine to 12 months, though “super” El Nino events follow this same general duration lifecycle — developing between March and June, peaking in winter, and decaying by the following spring — while sometimes extending slightly longer into a second year of residual global temperature impacts.

The effects of a super event reach maximum strength during the Northern Hemisphere’s late fall and winter.

The trend of warming temperatures is controversial, but when temperatures do rise, especially at night and in late fall, winter and early spring, it can cause a landslide of issues for people, wildlife and their habitat.

According to the National Park Service, conditions are becoming significantly drier at elevations below 6,500 feet in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). They came to the conclusion in a recent report titled “Changes in Yellowstone Climate,” the rise in minimum temperatures in the last decade “exceeds those of the 1930s Dust Bowl Era.”

“Considering the most recent trends in which warmer temperatures have been exacerbating drought conditions during the summers, a warmer, drier future for the GYE appears likely in the coming decades. By the latter part of the 21st century, the hot, dry conditions that led to the fires of 1988 will likely be the norm, representing a significant shift from past norms in the GYE toward the type of climate conditions we currently see in the southwestern United States,” the Service reported.

All global climate models currently predict that temperatures in the GYE will continue to increase. Projections of future precipitation vary based on differing scenarios, but any potential increases in precipitation that may or may not occur will be overwhelmed by temperature increases, the Park Service report claims. The GYE is the source of most of the Big Horn Basin’s water for industrial, agricultural and residents through annual snow melting at higher elevations.

The challenges of a super El Nino come as NOAA staffing levels have been cut. While AccuWeather has always done professional long-range forecasting, the need has been greater with fewer government weather experts.

The fact is, these forecasts affect far more businesses than agriculture. And while AccuWeather, which is a private entity, produces free forecasts to the general public, they also offer special long-range forecasts for businesses of all types. It seems businesses have the gift of foresight that many in the general public lack, and AccuWeather is happy to offer their services as government research at least temporarily rescinds.

“There are many businesses that are found where there isn’t a short attention span. They use the longer range forecasts for planning purposes, so they can position themselves well,” Roys said.

Let’s say there will be a lot of snow in Wyoming, Montana, Utah and Idaho. Major retailers want to make sure that there’s enough snow blowers, shovels and sand at the general store — like big box stores Home Depot, Menards and Lowe’s, so they are increasingly calling on AccuWeather for accurate forecasts that could possibly make the difference between profitability and loss, said Roys, who has been with the company for the past 14 years.

“They’re using forecasts from us to plan for their futures,” Roys said. “We’re already looking out into the upcoming seasons ... for people to gain some insights.”

But for the rest of us, AccuWeather has developed MinuteCast; a patented forecast that includes precipitation type and intensity, as well as start and end times for precipitation by the minute for the next two hours, localized to a person’s exact street address or GPS location. AccuWeather apps and AccuWeather.com website provide the MinuteCast feature free of charge to users.