Bill Tallen

There are perceptive minds atop a mountain of data and historical perspective looking at the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Some of them write books that few will read; some write online commentary that is easily lost in the noise until you take the time to discover the few that are truly worth your time. A handful even work for this government or that, where the best of them try to apply the logic of the professional hunter who pointed out that no one can stop a charging elephant, but if your timing is right, you might be able to jump out of his path and prick him in the side with a sharp stick, causing him to divert him a few degrees off his course. Whether that would accomplish anything worthwhile, and whether the better course might have been to either not be in front of him in the first place, or not provoke the charge, are reasonable questions.

And no, I don’t have any person, state, ideology, or economic model in mind for the role of charging bull elephant in that metaphor. The eyeblink when action — correct action — is necessary is the consequence of conflicting interests, colliding civilizations, and actions reaching back across decades and centuries, with many actors, which is why history truly is a wee bit important.

There is no knot-cutting revelation, sound bite or tweet that resolves the complexities or gives a sure course of action when the ground is shaking under your feet and the bull is trumpeting. But there are always some key points of fact and analysis that, if you have them in the memory bank, can help when you have to decide, or assess the value of yet another expert opinion. Such a quick assessment or decision, when done right, is known in the world of strategy as a “coup d’oeil” or “strike of the eye”, where one sees the essential elements of a situation “at a glance” without the need for extended study, analysis or debate. The expression is French, from the early 19th century, when French armies were conquering most of Europe, which I mention for those smug and unschooled enough to trot out the old “surrender” bromide at every mention of the nation whose support guaranteed our independence.

Here are a few things you will not have seen or heard much of in the media recently. Credit to Charlie Garcia of “Capital Mischief” and to a couple of other friends who will go unnamed.

“Every pause is called a ceasefire, which turns out to be the polite word for reloading.” In Texas,  a half billion dollar ammunition factory came online in 2024, promising key components for 30,000 155mm artillery shells a month by last October, to replace the extreme depletion of the U.S. stockpile by sending ammo to Ukraine. The factory has thus far produced nothing that meets contract specifications; and that’s the easy stuff. Some of the missiles (air defense, and air- or sea- launched anti-surface missiles) that we went through in March and April of this year, before the (ahem) “ceasefire,” require months and millions of dollars each to replace. Many of these have also been sent to Ukraine since that war began in 2022. Productive capacity is limited, rapid expansion is hugely expensive, and many of these munitions require rare earth minerals currently sourced exclusively from China. Our munitions locker is largely depleted.

Then there’s a longer historical perspective. The U.S. has never been dependent on Middle Eastern oil, but for at least 40 years took on the (uncompensated) responsibility of policing the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that 20%-25% of the world’s oil could flow freely to everyone else ... especially China. In our long on-and-off again war with Iran, we engaged in the Tanker War of the 1980s which culminated in the sinking of most of Iran’s navy in a single day in 1988. This guarantee has been the primary mission of the U.S. Fifth Fleet for at least that long, and the U.S. Navy maintained almost its entire force of minesweepers in Bahrain, out of concern over free navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, until they were decommissioned and removed last year. Their intended replacements rely on untested technology; and they represent such a huge investment that they have not been risked in the Strait of Hormuz in the current war. Barely half a year after standing down our only tried and true minesweeping capability,  there are reportedly about 80 ship-killing Iranian mines floating in the Strait. In 40 years of conflict that never happened — that leverage was never played — until now.

Finally, regarding oil. China’s petroleum reserve, much larger than our own, has been used to replace the millions of barrels cut off by blockade and closure of the Strait. It is drawn down heavily, and China has been speaking in an unprecedented loud, public and insistent voice to Iran. Not to America; to Iran, their erstwhile ally. They want the Strait open and oil flowing — soon — because the consequences to China’s economy and political stability if that doesn’t happen would be extreme. Neither superpower is being listened to.

We live in interesting times.