Dear Editor:

For the second time, I must respond to an editorial on climate change by Kevin Killough (Dec. 16).

He uses the December 2021 tornado outbreak that resulted in 93 deaths as a catalyst to attack University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann for statements made on a recent “Democracy Now” interview. Mann stated that this outbreak was not “natural” because of the record high temperatures and moisture over the Gulf of Mexico and in the southern U.S. that interacted with the winter jet stream, resulting in multiple thunderstorms and 44 reported tornadoes — some of them severe with unusually long ground tracks. It was the deadliest December outbreak in U.S. history.

Killough accused Mann of “a completely unscientific exaggeration” when the latter said that climate change-linked catastrophic events are “costing far more lives than COVID-19.” In rebuttal, Killough compared COVID and climate event statistics solely from 2020 and 2021 and claimed that Mann was far off the mark. This comparison is flawed.

Climatologists, including Mann, analyze trends over decades and centuries. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) compiles data for climatologically linked disasters taken from multiple sources. There were 11,000 climate-related extreme events from 1970 to 2019 that resulted in 2.06 million deaths. 

In December 2019, the WHO identified SARS-Cov-2 as a novel coronavirus that spread worldwide in early 2020, causing the COVID-19 disease. Before that, COVID in humans did not exist. By December 2021, there were 5.3 million deaths reported. Hence, Mann’s statement regarding greater climate related deaths versus COVID was indeed incorrect. However, he was not “off by a factor of 800” and his main point that climate change causes deleterious effects on human health was valid.

Killough downplays the impact of climate change by saying that the number of deaths “has plummeted 99%.” This is essentially correct but misleading. The decline has been gradual and is due to improvements in physical and social infrastructure, food production, etc. — not because the climatological events are not as serious or dangerous as claimed. 

Killough acknowledged an increased death rate from heat events but said that deaths from extreme cold have declined and that “on the whole, fewer people are dying from temperature extremes.” Again, Killough misinterpreted the data.

Two August 2021 Lancet studies stated that deaths from extreme cold were up 31% since 1990 and heat deaths have increased 74% from 1980 to 2016. Study co-author Katrin Burkhart of the University of Washington stated that cold temperatures have a greater effect on health but that “the harmful effects of extreme heat can far exceed those caused by cold in places where it is already hot, such as Southern Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa.” She emphasized that the risk of exposure to high temperatures has been increasing for decades. The IPCC also warned that if current global warming continues, extreme heat wave frequency will increase significantly.

Killough also misinterprets the data on tornadoes, claiming that “the trend in tornadoes is down.” He bases this inanity on a September 2021 tweet by ultraconservative University of Michigan and American Enterprise Institute economist Mark J. Perry, a ridiculous citation. Data from the NOAA reveal a yearly average of about 1,300 tornadoes since 1984 with no significant change.

Warmer weather in winter caused by climate change is projected to create conditions that make tornadoes more likely. It is true that mathematical modelling of these phenomena is still “challenging” because tornadic storms are brief, episodic and variable in time and place. However, Killough’s statement that “there is no evidence that [the December tornadoes] had anything to do with climate change” is disingenuous. Climatologists are keenly interested in this event for long term analysis. Clearly, Killough does not understand science.

Killough’s accusation that climatologists such as Dr. Mann are motivated by political agendas using alarmism to scare the public is not based in reality and indicates his own agenda of obfuscation. He ended his editorial by stating, “Climate change deserves science-based solutions.” Well, Kevin, I agree. What are they? Please enlighten us.

Jim McEvoy

Powell